State of the State Analysis

Illinois Republican Party Poll Demonstrates Public Concern with Governor's Budget Plan.

Published Sunday, March 11, 2007

No mandate for governor's plan, says poll by GOP

A poll commissioned by the Illinois Republican Party shows that neither Gov. ROD BLAGOJEVICH nor his massive new state budget plan have a lot of popular support.

"There's not a mandate" for the governor's budget and tax package, said ANDY MCKENNA, the party chairman.

The random sample of 600 registered voters statewide was surveyed Feb. 20-21 by McLaughlin & Associates. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

The timing of the poll - two weeks before the governor's State of the State and budget address last week, in which he outlined expanded plans to fund health care, education and pension costs - means some of its information is dated. But the results do provide a broad-brush look at some basics.

Among results:

• Nearly 51 percent of respondents thought Illinois is "headed off on the wrong track," compared with 36 percent saying the state us going in the "right direction." The rest didn't know or didn't answer.

• Blagojevich was viewed by almost 37 percent in a "favorable" light, including 12.5 percent "very favorable" and 24.3 percent "somewhat favorable;" However, 46 percent were on the "unfavorable" side, including almost 28 percent saying they have a "very unfavorable" view of the governor. Almost 15 percent had no opinion, and yes, 2.5 percent had not heard of him.

• On job approval, 63.2 rated Blagojevich's performance as "only fair" or "poor," including 26.8 percent "poor." There were 31.7 percent on the plus side, with 5.3 percent rating him as excellent, and 26.3 percent calling the performance "good."

• 26 percent said state government "works well," while 65.5 percent said it "needs reform."

• Just under 20 percent said Blagojevich has "restored honesty and integrity to state government," while 66.5 percent said it has been "politics as usual" under him. Nearly 14 percent didn't know or didn't answer.

• In a question that could be worded in different ways, 77.2 percent said they disapproved of the governor "taking money from the state employee pension fund to help balance the state budget." In recent budget years, some money that would have gone to the fund was used for other purposes, but it wasn't taken from the base. So this wording may paint too dismal a picture.

• The governor's plan to "sell the Illinois State Lottery to private investors" got 67.3 percent disapproval, 13.7 percent approval, and 19 percent not expressing an opinion.

• Respondents were asked about a gross receipts tax on business "to pay for state subsidized health insurance for anyone in the state who currently does not have health insurance," which is somewhat different from the plan the governor announced, which would also help some people pay for insurance they have.

  The question also says the tax would end up "raising prices for consumers on all goods and services," which doesn't take into account exemptions announced by the governor last week. Given the flaws in the question, disapproval of the idea came in at 50.7 percent, while 33.2 percent approved.

• Just for fun, perhaps, the Republicans threw in a question asking if the state Constitution should be amended to allow voters "the right to recall state elected officials and vote them out of office before their term expires." In all, 73.3 percent approved, while 13.3 percent disapproved and 13.3 percent didn't answer.

  McKenna said he thinks the poll shows tax increases will not be popular, whatever the goals.

  "The basic concern of voters about many of the governor's tactics is that it all comes down to selling assets or expanding borrowing" in addition to raising taxes, McKenna said. "Most citizens try to live within their means. ... People feel that the (financial) situation is kind of out of control."

  McKenna also said state revenue has increased in recent years, but state spending increased faster.

  "He's someone who likes to make promises he's often not able to deliver, and this sounds like more of the same to me," McKenna said.

  Despite big losses in November for his party, McKenna remains hopeful. He's encouraged by uniform opposition from members of his party to the governor's tax increase proposals, and he thinks the Iraq war played a part in the poor showing by Republican candidates in Illinois.

  "I think it's a new day," he said.

  That, of course, remains to be seen.

View the Governor's Budget and Analysis